Saturday of the World Championships is an absolute gauntlet of races on tap. The world’s best hit Santa Anita Park with all that they have, and this is sure to be a day to remember. While the order of races may not be what we are used to, the racing day should be nothing but spectacular. Here is how I see the races on the day.

Race 3 – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Grade I) | 1 Mile | Dirt | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $1,000,000
(1) Stage Raider | (3) Cody’s Wish | (4) Zozos
I do think this race runs through one main horse, Cody’s Wish, who can easily take this if he likes the two-turn trip; but his best is always around one turn, and he hasn’t been coming into this race off his best. I’ll use Stage Raider to beat him at a price; he was just a length from Zozos last out in the Ack Ack around one-turn, and really needs two turns to get his game going; his last win at Ellis Park was impressive, pulling away from the weaker stakes field – will need his best to win, but is poised for an upset. Zozos is the other talent here; Brad Cox has him ready. (Algiers was to be the play here, before he had to withdraw)

Race 4 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade I) | 1 1/4 Miles | Turf | Three-Year-Olds and Upward, F&M | $2,000,000
(2) Warm Heart | (6) Inspiral | (7) Lindy | (11) Lumiere Rock
After rewatching each of the preps for this field, no one has a turn of foot quite like Warm Heart. Last out in the Qatar Prix Vermeille, Warm Heart easily coasted and fended off the challenge of Melo Melo. She should relish the firmer ground and should appreciate the cut back in distance. Inspiral on class alone would likely win this race – and give Dettori a Breeders’ Cup Flying Dismount – and was impressive in the Sun Chariot; if she handles the move up in distance and the firmer ground, she will be dangerous. Lindy and Lumiere Rock are the longshot plays for me – Lindy showed impressive turn of foot last out and will respond well to the step up in pace, while Lumiere Rock puts her best on firmer ground and is not too far from the top of this field – if she can get to the front early she will easily hold on for a piece of it in the end.

Race 5 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade I) | 7 Furlongs | Dirt | Three-Year-Olds and Upward, F&M | $1,000,000
(1) Goodnight Olive
Not going to try and rewrite the book here – Goodnight Olive is much the best here in a race that came up very soft.

Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade I) | 1 Mile | Turf | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $2,000,000
(6) Mawj | (10) Songline | (11) Kelina | (14) Master Of The Seas
This is an absolute thriller on paper! So much talent in what may be the best Breeders’ Cup Mile in a long time. The 1000 Guineas winner, Mawj, gets my top vote here, as she had the ideal prep heading into this spot and has really taken well to the American turf. Her last out was an impressive gate to wire win at Keeneland and should move up off that. But her challengers are fierce. The Japanese back-to-back Yasuda Kinen winning mare, Songline, is the real deal – if she transfers her form and turn of foot overseas, she will be very difficult to stop; whether she makes the trip well is really the only question mark for a horse that continues to swallow up ground very quickly. Meanwhile the Wertheimer et Frere entry of Kelina may be the forgotten one, and could be open at a price, after an impressive win over Kinross in the Prix de la Foret last out; she is a fighter who is coming into her own now. Of course, it would be a mistake to leave out the Appleby-Buick runner, Master Of The Seas, who is an excellent horse in his own right; the pair have won this race the last two years and have another tough challenger with this winner of the Woodbine Mile.

Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Grade I) | 1 1/8 Miles | Dirt | Three-Year-Olds and Upward, F&M | $2,000,000
(7) Wet Paint | (4) Idiomatic | (2) A Mo Reay
The Distaff has come up with a ton of front speed and lots of horses that want the front. The expected fast pace sets up well for those with tactical speed and closers, which leads me to Wet Paint and Idiomatic. Both are must use in my opinion, with both looking to set just a bit off the quick early pace and sweeping by. Wet Paint is coming into her own well and should step up again here, while Idiomatic is one that has excelled from anywhere in the track and should be placed right behind the leaders or taking over if no one else does by Florent Geroux. A Mo Reay gets the price here – no way she should be anywhere near 20/1 – trouble has caused her to lose some lengths in her last three, but last out was showing exactly what you’d want and should continue to improve – a clean trip for her likely gets her into the money, if not better.

Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade I) | 1 1/2 Miles | Turf | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $4,000,000
(9) Mostahdaf | (5) Auguste Rodin
Can’t say there is much money to be won here, but some of the best turf stars in the world hit the Arcadia turf for a thrilling showdown. Auguste Rodin is by far the class of the field and will get most of the money – a thrilling sight to see the Irish Champion and dual Derby winner here for the Breeders’ Cup. But Mostahdaf will be my top choice here – should get him at twice the odds of Auguste Rodin and with just as much talent – the Juddmonte and Princes of Wales’s winner relishes this firmer ground and has shown to travel so well. He has grown so much since the Dubai Sheema Classic and should be in top form for Jim Crowley and John Gosden.

Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade I) | 1 1/4 Miles | Dirt | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $6,000,000
(13) Proxy | (8) Ushba Tesoro | (11) Bright Future
I’ve been a huge fan of Proxy for over a year now… just waiting for his time to shine. Here might be it. The son of Tapit is one with a ton of tactical speed but has found his way into some tough spots all year round. He finally has started to grow these last two and looks to be gearing up for another big run entering this spot. His best stuff comes at 10 furlongs, and his great positioning should keep him in a spot to pounce down the stretch against what looks to be a pretty quick pace. Ushba Tesoro is a must use – he is one of the best horses in the world and the quick pace here should bode well for him to get a big last run down the stretch and close on for victory. I’ll take a price in Bright Future who has found his preferred race as of late and should press the pace early and have the stamina to keep on going.

Race 10 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade I) | 5 Furlongs | Turf | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $1,000,000
(12) Arzak | (11) Jasper Krone | (3) Caravel
What a great betting race in the Turf Sprint! Arzak gets my pick – love his Woodford win last out and this is the type of spot he loves to be in – this race suits his style well and puts him right where he needs to be to win. His form is developing well coming into the Breeders Cup. Jasper Krone ships in from Japan and the cutback in distance to 5 furlongs should bode him well – nice run in the Kitakyushu Kinen earlier this year and has a ton of talent to show up today. Meanwhile Caravel is always a must use in these spots and, while the last two have been terrible trips, she should rebound to find her way near the front at the end.

Race 11 – Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade I) | 6 Furlongs | Dirt | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $2,000,000
(2) Dr. Schivel | (6) The Chosen Vron
I’m taking two of the top horses from the last two major sprint races in California, the Santa Anita Sprint Championship winner Dr. Schivel and the Bing Crosby winner The Chosen Vron. Both have tactical speed, are in great form, and relish this tricky track in Arcadia. Seeing how front running speed didn’t bode well for horses on Friday gives credence to those in the second flight.

The World Championships of Horse Racing are among us once again – the Breeders’ Cup! With a stacked Future Stars Friday card on the docket, Friday is an exceptional day of racing for any fan. No race is a true give-me with Juvenile races having diverse and challenging fields that are sure to cause the best horses to rise to the occasion.

Race 5 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade I) | 5 Furlongs | Turf | Two-Year-Olds | $1,000,000
(2) No Nay Mets | (9) Starlust | (11) Slider
Speed will be the name of the game for these two-year-olds in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. No Nay Mets has by far the best speed in this field, has drawn near the inside, and is fresh coming into this spot. Irad should be able to easily navigate this field from the front and pull away near the end to take the opening Championship race. I’d add Starlust and Slider underneath at prices; Starlust will definitely move up on this firmer turf while Slider is very comfortable on this course and should be running near the front in the end.

Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade I) | 1 1/16 Miles | Dirt | Two-Year-Old Fillies | $2,000,000
(7) Tamara | (1) Candied | (2) Jody’s Pride
Is Tamara much the best in this field? Absolutely. If she runs her race, she crushes this field, but if she doesn’t repeat her effort in the Del Mar Debutante, the Alcibiades winner Candied isn’t going to be too far behind her. Candied has been impressive in both her starts and is showing great turn of foot for being so young. Both ridden by elite jockeys that will be putting their mounts in the best position. But if not them, watch out for a young two-year-old by American Pharoah out of a Scat Daddy mare; Jody’s Pride may have been sprinting against fields that really wanted to be on turf, but she has taken both races in great stride and was ultra impressive drawing away in the Matron last out at Aqueduct. While this will be a step up for her, and a much longer distance, her pedigree suggests she gets the distance and at 15/1, it is hard to avoid a horse that should definitely be at a shorter price.

Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade I) | 1 Mile | Turf | Two-Year-Old Fillies | $1,000,000
(8) Life’s An Audible | (5) Content | (7) Gala Brand | (10) Austere
This is by far the toughest race of the day to handicap. The Euros look good here, but the obvious stand-outs have too many questions about distance to put a lot of eggs in their basket. Instead, I go with a longshot coming in from NY, Life’s An Audible, who was charging hard last time out against an incredible slow pace. She won’t get that here and should get the quick pace she was hoping to have – that will work well for her turn of foot and help her do just one better this time. Underneath, I’ll take the mount of Ryan Moore, Content, who had a flying win last out in the Staffordstown Stud and should easily make the distance – she has been getting better as the races get longer and should be a contender. I’ll also use a second runner out of the Ms Grillo, Gala Brand, who was impressive in the With Anticipation and looks to get a trip that won’t have her in the middle of the track. I also can’t leave this race without looking at Austere, who could end up being the best of this bunch a year from now; I think she is just a bit green still, but watching her win at Kentucky Downs is all you need to know she is a future star.

Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Grade I) | 1 1/16 Mile | Dirt | Two-Year-Old Colts & Geldings | $2,000,000
(8) General Partner | (4) Timberlake | (10) Muth
The Champagne Stakes one-two look to be coming into form well. Timberlake put his best performance on the track in the Champagne last out, but General Partner may be the better one here; looked like the slop just hampered his ability to finish, but that won’t be the problem here. Both of these are much the best in the field. Muth has a lot of talent and sure to at least test anyone down the stretch.

Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade I) | 1 Mile | Turf | Two Year Old Colts & Geldings | $1,000,000
(8) Unquestionable | (14) Carson’s Run | (2) River Tiber
Aidan O’Brien does look to be the one to come away with another Juvenile Turf this year, with a very tough to stop Unquestionable. He should easily hit the money and looks to tower over this field. While he does have a few blemishes on his record, he has been racing against the top and continues to impress. Meanwhile, Carson’s Run comes out of a tough Summer Stakes at Woodbine that he won in funky fashion – a more straightforward trip will bode well for him (also watch if Gala Brand wins the Juvenile Fillies Turf earlier in the day; he finished behind her in the With Anticipation). I’ll throw the other talented Aidan O’Brien into the card, with River Tiber shipping well and sure to be a threat.

New York, New York – the home of the Belmont Stakes and the Third Jewel of the Triple Crown! After a few days of the apocalypse shuddered New York, we are back with racing this Saturday for a stacked card of some of the greatest and most historic races, along side championship horses. Let’s take a look at the races and my selections for Belmont Stakes Day:

Race 3 | True North | G2 | 6.5 Furlongs Dirt | $250,000 | 4UP
(1) Today’s Flavor | (5) Strobe | (6) Elite Power

While the Riyadh Dirt Sprint winner may be tough to beat first out of his Saudi win, the layoff and trip may get the best of him. I’ll go with the strong early speed of Today’s Flavor with Manny Franco aboard; he has shown up time and time again, loves getting to the lead first, and has the style to go gate-to-wire. Strobe and Elite Power will be underneath.

Race 5 | Poker | G3 | 1 Mile Turf | $200,000 | 4UP
(1) Chez Pierre | (2) Emaraaty | (7) Filo Di Arianna

The Maker’s Mark Mile winner from France, the aptly named Chez Pierre, is much the best in this group. Really hard to see how this gelding loses with Flavien Prat aboard in this one. Emaraaty is a tough and hard trier making the first off a long layoff, which is usually pretty good for him, while Filo Di Arianna has the resume to excel in this spot second off the layoff.

Race 6 | Brooklyn | G2 | 1 1/2 Miles Dirt | $250,000 | 4UP
(5) Next | (2) Red Run | (1) Portos

Next is an outstanding marathoner that has found his niche. Should really excel in this spot at Belmont Park against many returning foes from last time. If he grabs the lead early, he will put this field away. Red Run came out of the same race and just missed the win – looked to be much better than winner but had a tough trip, while Portos should get back into form with Tom Morley.

Race 7 | Ogden Phipps | G1 | 1 1/16 Miles Dirt | $500,000 | 4UP FM
(4) Secret Oath | (1) Pass The Champagne | (2) Search Results

What a showdown between Secret Oath and Search Results! The daughter of Arrogate for D. Wayne Lukas looks to take this against a very tough field, but she will look to rebound going her preferred one turn. She is a tough horse and should be able to close out and catch Search Results or Played Hard late. Pass The Champagne is a nice price horse that you need to watch out for – she was impressive last out in the Ruffian.

Race 8 | Woody Stephens | G1 | 7 Furlongs Dirt | $400,000 | 3YO
(4) General Jim | (13) Drew’s Gold | (3) Arabian Lion

The Pat Day Mile winner, General Jim, looks to complete the double, and has the right running style to do it. Closers excel in the Woody Stephens usually but will have to content with a tough Baffert runner in Arabian Lion. Drew’s Gold is improving and has a very live chance to steal.

Race 9 | Jaipur | G1 | 6 Furlongs Turf | $400,000 | 3UP
(12) Caravel | (2) Go Bears Go | (1) Yes And Yes

Caravel is the best turf sprinter in the country. She has been dominant for so long and continues to get better. She doesn’t seem to be looking back at all. This is the type of spot that she should relish – a track that loves her running style. The lock of the day.

Race 10 | Metropolitan Handicap | G1 | 1 Mile Dirt | $1,000,000 | 3UP
(1) Cody’s Wish | (3) Dr. Schivel | (6) Zandon

Cody’s Wish is the one to beat here – has been dominant the last year, and is tough around one turn. If there is even an ounce of speed, he will be able to close well and should blow past down the stretch. Dr. Schivel will be the one to catch, though. He may be better than Cody’s Wish, though hard to say right now – lots of talent and he is finally back to the races and looks to be right. Could be a dominant force in the one-turn division. Meanwhile Zandon is dangerous to sneak a win if thinks fall apart.

Race 11 | Manhattan | G1 | 1 1/4 Miles Turf | $750,000 | 4UP
(4) Ottoman Fleet | (5) Soldier Rising | (10) Highest Honors

Charlie Appleby doesn’t lose when he sends horses to the states, and the Fort Marcy winner Ottoman Fleet joins his winning contingent. He easily won clear last out and looks to continue that in this Belmont invasion – has a lot of class and toughness to win and should be placed well for the most part. Soldier Rising was solid in the Man O’ War, just coming up short, but shouldn’t be doubted in this spot for Christophe Clement, while Highest Honors should recover footing moving back to Belmont Park.

Race 12 | Belmont Stakes | G1 | 1 1/2 Miles Dirt | $1,500,000 | 3YO
(8) Angel Of Empire | (1) Tapit Shoes | (3) Arcangelo

Angel Of Empire has the pedigree, running style, and skill to crush this field. The Belmont is the perfect race for him, and he seems to be the type that can run all day long. Getting blinkers here should help him stay forwardly placed and take this race all the way. Tapit Shoes is the other for Brad Cox, and ran very well in the Bath House Row last out; really improving and should relish this distance. Meanwhile don’t sleep on the Peter Pan winner Arcangelo, who was dangerous las tout and looks to fit well with this group – only can go up from here!

The Big Day is among us! The World Championships of Horse Racing heat up on Saturday, headlined by an absolute thriller of a race on paper in the Turf and a potential legendary performance in the Classic. Here is how I see the day shape up.

Race 3 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (GI) Sat. 11:50am
$1,000,000 7 Furlongs Dirt For Older, Fillies & Mare
Top Selections: 11- Wicked Halo 4- Ce Ce 13- Echo Zulu
This race is loaded with speed. With so much early speed, I’ll take Wicked Halo who will likely rate off the pace and take a late run at the lead. With a similar race and win last out over course and distance, this daughter of Gun Runner finds herself in a spot that works to her running style and advantage. The class and pace will be tough, but she is suited well to take on the step up here. As for another stalker, Ce Ce took a similar route this year as she did last year to the F&M Sprint – with this being her only race of the year that she comes into off of just one month rest. This is where her form does best – off a “quick” turnaround, and her stalking style and class will poise her as one to watch. Meanwhile, Echo Zulu at a slight price is tempting. I love her coming from the outside post, giving her a clear path to take the lead right out of the gate. I don’t think she has the best case to be made with this pace, but if she is the one on the lead, I can’t go against a horse that has never lost when leading out of the gate.

Race 4 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (GI) Sat. 12:29pm
$1,000,000 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf For Older
Top Selections: 8- Golden Pal 12- Bran 1- Creative Force
Could this very well be the worst field that Golden Pal has ever faced? This son of Uncle Mo goes in an easy group for the Turf Sprint and should crush it. His four for four record at Keeneland and near perfect record in these types of spots makes him very hard to bet against. This field doesn’t pose much of a challenge and is an easy single in the card. Underneath, I’ll use Bran, who was impressive last out at Kentucky Downs and has been close in just about every start, and Creative Force, who is looking to turn it up based on the current form cycle.

Race 5 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (GI) Sat. 1:10pm
$1,000,000 1 Mile Dirt For Older
Top Selections: 3- Pipeline 2- Simplification 6- Laurel River
Few horses have impressed me more this year than Pipeline, who continues to improve and impress. Last year was far from an ideal year for this son of Speightstown, but once turning four, he has been a different beast. Sure, its only three races, but it was against great company and in pretty tough spots. The draw to the inside should help him stop losing so much ground, and the more average pace he will face here will go towards his liking. I’m willing to take a chance on him in this wide-open spot. I’ll be throwing in Simplification, who I’ve been waiting to get back to a mile – I think this is his best distance by far, and Laurel River, who truly impressed me last out in the Pat O’Brien and should continue to advance well going forwards.

Race 6 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (GI) Sat. 1:50pm
$2,000,000 1 3/16 Miles Turf For Older, Filles & Mares
Top Selections: 3- Nashwa 12- Moira 11- In Italian
This is as tough a race as can be. Until proven otherwise, my attention has to go with Nashwa, the winner of the Nassau Stakes at Glorious Goodwood earlier this year. This daughter of Frankel towers over this field in all ways, with perhaps the best closing kick on this card. Hard to ignore. Moira is an interesting one here, having really crushed on the synthetic before making the switch to turf and nearly coming up with a win over Rougir last out in a troubled trip (though later DQ’ed). Her talent is hard to ignore – just will she have it all together and find a non-troubled trip. I’ll also use In Italian, who should be near or on the lead the entire time and is dangerous down the stretch for Chad Brown.

Race 7 Breeders’ Cup Sprint (GI) Sat. 2:30pm
$2,000,000 6 Furlongs Dirt For Older
Top Selections: 9- Jackie’s Warrior 4- American Theorem 2- Kimari
I have too much respect for Jackie’s Warrior to go against him in a spot that sets up for him perfectly. Unlike last year where almost an entire field of speed was signed up, Jackie’s Warrior is the lone take the lead type anyone would need to worry about. Putting him alone on the lead is dangerous and knowing that makes this a sure bet – all in here. Will use American Theorem and Kimari for value underneath – only two that seem to be anywhere close to Jackie’s Warrior in this field and should be around to pick up the pieces after him late.

Race 8 Breeders’ Cup Mile (GI) Sat. 3:10pm
$2,000,000 1 Mile Turf For Older
Top Selections: 4- Modern Games 6- Ivar 13- Kinross/1- Pogo
Modern Games is the clear best choice in this field – he is the top horse of both the Euros and American raced horses and looks to build off his Breeders’ Cup success last year with a win here. This race sets up well for him, he has been in form, and he has been tested against others also in form. His turn of foot is top in this class and should relish this firmer surface once again. I’ll be taking Ivar underneath as one who has matched up well with Modern Games and others here, but always seemed to find trouble when drawing more inside. Would’ve preferred an even more outer post, but I’ll take this and look at another similar performance to the last two times he ran in this race. I also can’t avoid Kinross and Pogo, who if you like one you need to like the other – Kinross has been a force over in England and France racing at 7 furlongs and takes the step up today while Pogo is right there with him two back and is coming out of an impressive front running win in the Newmarket Challenge Stakes.

Race 9 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (GI) Sat. 3:55pm
$2,000,000 1 1/8 Miles Dirt For Older, Fillies & Mares
Top Selections: 6- Nest 8- Society 2- Blue Stripe
This race goes through Nest, the clear top three-year-old filly this year. She has done all she has needed to do to get into the favorite spot this weekend and will look to continue to build on that here. Her Beldame win wasn’t her best of the year against a very weak field but served as a good tune-up for this race. Her tactical speed to rate or get to the lead helps in a spot that seems to have a good bit of speed but no one who clearly wants to get to the lead. I look for her to go right to the front early and never give anyone an inch later. Now, what would’ve have happened in the C. C. American Oaks had Society not stumbled at the break? Her races have been just as good as Nest’s. I think a clean trip for her may yield a race on similar footing; if she can get the lead early, perhaps she is the one that will take them all the way. I’ll also play Blue Stripe underneath – has been improving this year and getting into a nice spot in form since racing in this race last year. Not of the same class, but she has the tactical ability to get into a spot to get a piece of the trifecta.

Race 10 Breeders’ Cup Turf (GI) Sat. 4:40pm
$4,000,000 1 1/2 Miles Turf For Older
Top Selections: 13- Highland Chief 5- Rebel’s Romance 10- Red Knight
Graham Motion’s Highland Chief should likely be four for four in his last four stakes races, had it not been for some early trouble. He gets to stay away from the early gate bumping and settle into a cleaner trip here with the outside post, which should help him move up. John Velazquez has really improved this son of Gleneagles and has taken a step up going into this spot. Rebel’s Romance is a must use – an easy winner if he is on his game, and Red Knight takes my fancy if you scratch out his last out run where he lost all chance, he fits well with this field and gets Luis Saez aboard on the step up in class.

Race 11 Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI) Sat. 5:40pm
$6,000,000 1 1/4 Miles Dirt For Older
Top Selections: 4- Flightline 6- Epicenter 2- Life Is Good
Flightline is the best horse in the world this year. No argument. No one in this field can go with him early. There is no way that I’m not going to sit back and watch this horse just crush the field. I’ll take Epicenter underneath – this sone of Not This Time is finally finding his will to win again after runner up finishes in the Derby and Preakness. He is tactical and knows how to stay strong against firm speed – maybe gets up for second. If I am trying to beat Flightline, Life Is Good is the only one in the field that – on his best day – has a chance to beat Flightline. Now, trying to get the lead from Flightline is impossible, but if Life Is Good can rate just off Flightline, there is a chance he can close in and win. I’ll also not ignore Olympiad – he caved to Saratoga two back but looked good otherwise this year – maybe an upset chance?

With the Kentucky Derby returning to its normal spot at the First Saturday in May, so do fans underneath the twin spires. Louisville will be the center of the sports world once again as 19 three-year old colts line up with the chance of a lifetime on the line. The favorite, the juvenile champion Essential Quality for Godolphin and quickly rising young trainer Brad Cox. Winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November, Essential Quality has extended his undefeated streak to five with wins in the Southwest and the Blue Grass. His top foe could come right to his outside in Rock Your World, who rocked Santa Anita with his win last out in his first career start on dirt. Elsewhere, perhaps it is Irad Ortiz Jr getting his first Derby win with Pletcher & Known Agenda, or maybe Medina Spirit giving Baffert win number 7, or the Asmussen family connection with Super Stock.

Race 6 – Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2)
1:14pm ET | $500,000 | 4YO and Up F&M | 1 mi Turf
Although Chad Brown has been the big name in turf stakes races the last many years, it has been Brad Cox that has dominated this race as of late – winning last two with Beau Recall. But there is no Cox here and two Brown runners – She’s Got You and Blowout. I prefer the latter, (6) Blowout, who has been an unlucky cookie in her last two, getting nailed at the wire by Viadera in the Noble Damsel and Matriarch; but now she gets away from her rival, gets time off, and looks to find her way wire to wire in this mile affair. Her figures are the best in this field and her style should let her get away early and not look back. Additionally, look for the longshot (7) Abscond to improve in her second start off the layoff. The form cycle she is currently in puts her well in the top company and gets Joel Rosario who has been hot as of late. (4) Zofelle is hard to leave off any tickets even after last out, where she lost to Got Stormy after being wide throughout – this may be a better trip for her to put her into contention.

Race 7 – Derby City Distaff (G2)
1:56pm ET | $500,000 | 4YO and Up F&M | 7 Furlongs Dirt
The last thing I want to bet against is (4) Gamine as lone speed going around one turn. The Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint champion makes her seasonal debut in a race that she should win by five lengths or more. I’ll take (3) Bell’s the One right behind, as she has been one of the closest to Gamine in the past and loves Churchill Downs, and (5) Hibiscus Punch who looks to be in form right now.

Race 8 – Pat Day Mile (G2)
2:48pm ET | $500,000 | Three Year Olds | 1 mi Dirt
This is a wide open edition of the old Derby Trial – with no true standout, this is the race to find an excellent price. I start with (5) Prevalence, who ran well to start the Wood Memorial but ultimately couldn’t go that long. He now heads back to one-turn and this well bred Godolphin looks to jumpstart big things with a win here. His early speed and draw should help and his recent workouts have been lights out. I then pull in the outside pair to complete my top three. (12) Joe Frazier had a great tune up last out and is peaking at the right now for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux; he keeps finding more as the races get tougher. (11) Noble Reflection should improve on the cut back down in distance and fits well in this spot.

Race 9 – American Turf (G2)
3:40pm ET | $500,000 | Three Year Olds | 1 1/16 mi Turf
The son of Sky Mesa, (13) Scarlett Sky, is a must use in one of the toughest races to handicap this weekend. While nothing here is a sure thing – this race is wide open – Scarlett Sky’s win in the Transylvania last out was one of the most visually impressive turf wins of the year thus far, showing a huge turn of foot to just get up late after being wide and showing nothing for the most part elsewhere. In a race where there is a ton of speed signed up, it looks to set up for him as long as he is on his game. I’ll also be taking (1) Excellent Timing, who will be making a big step up after two straight wins by six or more lengths against NY-bred company; perhaps its too easy to pick a Chad Brown on turf who is crushing foes, but he seems to fit. Lastly, Brad Cox has an interesting runner in (6) Royal Prince who is exiting the Bayou City at Sam Houston. His last two races have shown he is on the improve and may finally fit in this class. His tactical speed and turn of foot makes him a solid choice and at a price.

Race 10 – Churchill Downs (G1)
4:31pm ET | $500,000 | 4YO and Up | 7 Furlongs Dirt
Some very familiar foes line up in the Churchill Downs Stakes, being held for only the second time as a G1 as it was skipped during 2020. The ageless Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Whitmore returns, although Churchill Downs has not been kind to him in his five career starts here under the Twin Spires, having only won once and finished dead last in his try at the Kentucky Derby. With both an unfavorable course and distance, Whitmore regretfully has to be a toss for me, as much as I’ll be rooting for the old man. Instead, I go to a youngster in (5) Tap It to Win, who had seen some success last year when trying to make it to top quality three-year old races, like the shortened Belmont Stakes and the H. Allen Jerkens. He got time off after the Pat Day Mile last September and came back with a tune up in the NYRABets Sprint at Tampa Bay Downs in state-bred company. While not a tough field, he drove home and pulled away down the stretch after having a very troubled trip. With Mark Casse runners, that is the type of return you want to see. He is coming in sharp and should love the one-turn seven furlong distance. Underneath, I’ll use (4) Flagstaff, who just finished behind Whitmore two back before winning last out impressively in the Commonwealth at Keeneland. His figures aren’t where I’d like them to be, but his form is sharp and should continue to improve – especially at his preferred distance. Finally, I’ll take the other seven furlong specialist in (11) Hog Creek Hustle who, although slightly outclassed here, is eligible to improve with the return to Churchill Downs.

Race 11 – Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic (G1)
5:27pm ET | $1,000,000 | 4YO and Up | 1 1/8 mi Turf
The Pegasus World Cup Turf winner (3) Colonel Liam has been one of the top turf horses in the world thus far, showing impressive turn of foot in that race and then easily coasting home in the Muniz Memorial Classic to get to this spot. He is a stand out here. He is my top pick as he towers over this field, but watch out for (1) Masteroffoxhounds, who is really coming into top form. Last out in the San Luis Rey was just too long for him – he gets a cut back in distance to a much more favorable nine furlongs. And I’ll be throwing in the South American import (4) Ivar who makes his return to racing after having last been seen finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. The slightly longer distance should do him well; will be in the mix if he returns off the layoff well.

Race 12 – Kentucky Derby (G1)
6:57pm ET | $3,000,000 | Three Year Olds | 1 1/4 mi Dirt

Race Notes:
1- Known Agenda (Irad Ortiz, Jr./Todd Pletcher): beat a huge field last out in the Florida Derby; didn’t show much last out early – got break of not getting caught in traffic; moved up on the backside; small compared to the field; fought valiantly but was a big green in victory last out; needs to grow up a bit; did not take to the TB surface; prefers a more tepid pace; didn’t take to wet ground; may be a horse for course at Gulfstream; blinks on was something he needed
2- Like the King (Drayden Van Dyke/Wesley Ward): slow breaker; short stride; been a horse for course at Turfway; got lucky late with a bunched up field last out; came on strong in last few strides; still pretty green; gets going after a bunch of pushes; needs a lot of help and urging; once gotten going though, he has dangerous speed; could be a live longshot; improving on figures.
3- Brooklyn Strong (Umberto Rispoli/Daniel Velazquez): sharp breaker; little thin; makes solid moves down backstretch against slow pace; performs much better on off track; may do better at longer; ran his race in Wood but not pace of lead pack; no late run last out; working well; may improve second off layoff; right now – no chance
4- Keepmeinmind (David Cohen/Robertino Diodoro): does not break well; tends to lag behind the field; real late mover; passes tired horses; never pace of the winners; no chance
5- Sainthood (Corey Lanerie/Todd Pletcher): breaks well; great pedigree; really game closing kick; probably should’ve own last out; been working well; live longshot
6- O Besos (Marcelino Pedroza/Gregory Foley): strong pedigree; not pace of winner last out but still tried; snuck along live pace in Louisiana Derby to make up ground; definitely a cut below
7- Mandaloun (Florent Geroux/Brad Cox): championship pedigree; quick early speed; sharpened up first after getting blinkers in Risen Star; just empty last out – odd; perhaps not comfortable with fast pace; doesn’t fit on dosage index; toss
8- Medina Spirit (John Velazquez/Bob Baffert): unique pedigree for this – lots of sprinting speed; just seems to get faster and faster each furlong; visibly impressive in each race; misses the turn often; need the lead; doesn’t have a late closing kick if challenge
9- Hot Rod Charlie (Flavien Prat/Doug O’Neill): bred out of dam of Mitole and shows lots of speed in pedigree; starts well but needs more practice breaking – comes out a bit bobbled each time; runs a lot better from front end; starting to grow each time and turning into form; very strong runner; blossoming; hot right now and tough; very live
10- Midnight Bourbon (Mike Smith/Steven Asmussen): Godolphin Arabian descendant hasn’t won this race since War Admiral; very professional and mature; strong breaker; always puts in good effort; should improve late under Mike Smith; may be peaking at the right time; one to watch
11- Dynamic One (Jose Ortiz/Todd Pletcher): was all out last time; ran valiantly in Wood; been working sharp and wouldn’t be a shocker; lightly raced at the class; needs to move forward a bit to contend
12- Helium (Julien Leparoux/Mark Casse): snuck by in the Tampa Bay Derby; just had a blessed trip last out; eligible to improve second time off layoff; likely a cut below
13- Hidden Stash (Rafael Bejarano/Victoria Oliver): strong pedigree; shoots out of the gate like a rocket; settles nicely; very calm; fights each time; too much to do last out to catch leaders; needs to improve, but has exotics chance
14- Essential Quality (Luis Saez/Brad Cox): regally bred; 2yo champion; calm breaker; cruises easily through race; running style fits the bill; tactical speed; runs on any surface; may do better as a presser; can set pace well; prefers outside; has a bit of an issue changing leads; may not love the distance; sharp worker; the one to beat
15- Rock Your World (Joel Rosario/John Sadler): lots of stamina in the pedigree; gets Joel Rosario; second start on dirt; unraced as a 2yo; very muscular; sets a very strong early pace; does not let go once he finds the lead; has a bit of trouble paying attention late if not challenged; speed figures put him along the best of them
16- King Fury (SCRATCH)
17- Highly Motivated (Javier Castellano/Chad Brown): regally bred with dam of Practical Joke; not the greatest at breaking from the gate; does not like being in traffic; seems to lack the late kick you want to see; figures are deceiving
18- Super Stock (Ricardo Santana, Jr./Steven Asmussen): mature and racing a long time; improved when being ridden as a midpack/stalker; long strider; prefers to escape traffic; although passing tired horses last out, did so while driving and was very impressive; if he can stay out of traffic, should have a huge shot to upset
19- Soup and Sandwich (Tyler Gaffalione/Mark Casse): Into Mischief crossed with Tapit; lightly raced; impressive on debut and in win at Tampa against lesser; just races so easily as stalker; probably would’ve been passed earlier in the stretch last out if had not blocked; needs a target; no strong chance
20- Bourbonic (Kendrick Carmouche/Todd Pletcher): well bred; good breaker from gate; does not need fast pace; caught great run last out; longer stretch at CD should help; huge stride; major shot to hit the board or maybe even upset if pace is fast enough

Race Selections:
For me, (14) Essential Quality has been the best horse in every start, and while he hasn’t peaked yet this year, he has done everything he needed and some to win his last two as a three-year old. Really hard to get past what looks to be one of the best favorites in some  time. After him, (10) Midnight Bourbon is a hard trier whose best is yet to come – I love his majority each start and should be getting better with the added distance; plus getting Mike Smith aboard is an instant boost. Finally, the other Asmussen may be the biggest shocker as (18) Super Stock is peaking at the right time and his Arkansas Derby win sets him up well; the most experienced horse in the field (in what is the least experienced field for a Derby on record) may be the one to wear the garland of roses.
The way the pace is setting up makes Super Stock seem like the top contender, and should be a must use on all tickets behind Essential Quality and Midnight Bourbon. Hot Rod Charlie is hot right now, though I have doubts that he can get the distance at this pace. Going to be using Known Agenda, Hot Rod Charlie, Dynamic One, Hidden Stash, Rock Your World, Bourbonic, Like the King, and Sainthood in a variety of trifectas and superfectas in the 3rd and 4th spot.
Personally, a part of me really hopes that Midnight Bourbon wins – a win in the Kentucky Derby would make history as the first Godolphin Arabian descendant to win the race since War Admiral; the dying sire line’s last hopes rest in the progeny of Tiznow and this may be his best if he can win. A Derby win would put him as a potential top sire going forward.

Week Two has come to a close – Here is the Updated Tagline Top 25.

Note, the first few weeks will see teams fluctuate heavily – by Week 5, the algorithm part of this is balanced out.

Others on the Bubble: Miami (FL), Kansas State, Virginia, South Carolina, Missouri, Boise State, North Carolina

Dropped from Rankings: Miami (FL), Boise State, Stanford, Virginia

After a couple week hiatus due to work, I’m back in time for Rivalry Week! Playoff spots are on the line across the nation and no one would rather spoil them than a rival.  Get ready for one of the most thrilling weeks of college football!

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