Saturday of the World Championships is an absolute gauntlet of races on tap. The world’s best hit Santa Anita Park with all that they have, and this is sure to be a day to remember. While the order of races may not be what we are used to, the racing day should be nothing but spectacular. Here is how I see the races on the day.
Race 3 – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Grade I) | 1 Mile | Dirt | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $1,000,000
(1) Stage Raider | (3) Cody’s Wish | (4) Zozos
I do think this race runs through one main horse, Cody’s Wish, who can easily take this if he likes the two-turn trip; but his best is always around one turn, and he hasn’t been coming into this race off his best. I’ll use Stage Raider to beat him at a price; he was just a length from Zozos last out in the Ack Ack around one-turn, and really needs two turns to get his game going; his last win at Ellis Park was impressive, pulling away from the weaker stakes field – will need his best to win, but is poised for an upset. Zozos is the other talent here; Brad Cox has him ready. (Algiers was to be the play here, before he had to withdraw)
Race 4 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade I) | 1 1/4 Miles | Turf | Three-Year-Olds and Upward, F&M | $2,000,000
(2) Warm Heart | (6) Inspiral | (7) Lindy | (11) Lumiere Rock
After rewatching each of the preps for this field, no one has a turn of foot quite like Warm Heart. Last out in the Qatar Prix Vermeille, Warm Heart easily coasted and fended off the challenge of Melo Melo. She should relish the firmer ground and should appreciate the cut back in distance. Inspiral on class alone would likely win this race – and give Dettori a Breeders’ Cup Flying Dismount – and was impressive in the Sun Chariot; if she handles the move up in distance and the firmer ground, she will be dangerous. Lindy and Lumiere Rock are the longshot plays for me – Lindy showed impressive turn of foot last out and will respond well to the step up in pace, while Lumiere Rock puts her best on firmer ground and is not too far from the top of this field – if she can get to the front early she will easily hold on for a piece of it in the end.
Race 5 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade I) | 7 Furlongs | Dirt | Three-Year-Olds and Upward, F&M | $1,000,000
(1) Goodnight Olive
Not going to try and rewrite the book here – Goodnight Olive is much the best here in a race that came up very soft.
Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade I) | 1 Mile | Turf | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $2,000,000
(6) Mawj | (10) Songline | (11) Kelina | (14) Master Of The Seas
This is an absolute thriller on paper! So much talent in what may be the best Breeders’ Cup Mile in a long time. The 1000 Guineas winner, Mawj, gets my top vote here, as she had the ideal prep heading into this spot and has really taken well to the American turf. Her last out was an impressive gate to wire win at Keeneland and should move up off that. But her challengers are fierce. The Japanese back-to-back Yasuda Kinen winning mare, Songline, is the real deal – if she transfers her form and turn of foot overseas, she will be very difficult to stop; whether she makes the trip well is really the only question mark for a horse that continues to swallow up ground very quickly. Meanwhile the Wertheimer et Frere entry of Kelina may be the forgotten one, and could be open at a price, after an impressive win over Kinross in the Prix de la Foret last out; she is a fighter who is coming into her own now. Of course, it would be a mistake to leave out the Appleby-Buick runner, Master Of The Seas, who is an excellent horse in his own right; the pair have won this race the last two years and have another tough challenger with this winner of the Woodbine Mile.
Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Grade I) | 1 1/8 Miles | Dirt | Three-Year-Olds and Upward, F&M | $2,000,000
(7) Wet Paint | (4) Idiomatic | (2) A Mo Reay
The Distaff has come up with a ton of front speed and lots of horses that want the front. The expected fast pace sets up well for those with tactical speed and closers, which leads me to Wet Paint and Idiomatic. Both are must use in my opinion, with both looking to set just a bit off the quick early pace and sweeping by. Wet Paint is coming into her own well and should step up again here, while Idiomatic is one that has excelled from anywhere in the track and should be placed right behind the leaders or taking over if no one else does by Florent Geroux. A Mo Reay gets the price here – no way she should be anywhere near 20/1 – trouble has caused her to lose some lengths in her last three, but last out was showing exactly what you’d want and should continue to improve – a clean trip for her likely gets her into the money, if not better.
Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade I) | 1 1/2 Miles | Turf | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $4,000,000
(9) Mostahdaf | (5) Auguste Rodin
Can’t say there is much money to be won here, but some of the best turf stars in the world hit the Arcadia turf for a thrilling showdown. Auguste Rodin is by far the class of the field and will get most of the money – a thrilling sight to see the Irish Champion and dual Derby winner here for the Breeders’ Cup. But Mostahdaf will be my top choice here – should get him at twice the odds of Auguste Rodin and with just as much talent – the Juddmonte and Princes of Wales’s winner relishes this firmer ground and has shown to travel so well. He has grown so much since the Dubai Sheema Classic and should be in top form for Jim Crowley and John Gosden.
Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade I) | 1 1/4 Miles | Dirt | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $6,000,000
(13) Proxy | (8) Ushba Tesoro | (11) Bright Future
I’ve been a huge fan of Proxy for over a year now… just waiting for his time to shine. Here might be it. The son of Tapit is one with a ton of tactical speed but has found his way into some tough spots all year round. He finally has started to grow these last two and looks to be gearing up for another big run entering this spot. His best stuff comes at 10 furlongs, and his great positioning should keep him in a spot to pounce down the stretch against what looks to be a pretty quick pace. Ushba Tesoro is a must use – he is one of the best horses in the world and the quick pace here should bode well for him to get a big last run down the stretch and close on for victory. I’ll take a price in Bright Future who has found his preferred race as of late and should press the pace early and have the stamina to keep on going.
Race 10 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade I) | 5 Furlongs | Turf | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $1,000,000
(12) Arzak | (11) Jasper Krone | (3) Caravel
What a great betting race in the Turf Sprint! Arzak gets my pick – love his Woodford win last out and this is the type of spot he loves to be in – this race suits his style well and puts him right where he needs to be to win. His form is developing well coming into the Breeders Cup. Jasper Krone ships in from Japan and the cutback in distance to 5 furlongs should bode him well – nice run in the Kitakyushu Kinen earlier this year and has a ton of talent to show up today. Meanwhile Caravel is always a must use in these spots and, while the last two have been terrible trips, she should rebound to find her way near the front at the end.
Race 11 – Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade I) | 6 Furlongs | Dirt | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $2,000,000
(2) Dr. Schivel | (6) The Chosen Vron
I’m taking two of the top horses from the last two major sprint races in California, the Santa Anita Sprint Championship winner Dr. Schivel and the Bing Crosby winner The Chosen Vron. Both have tactical speed, are in great form, and relish this tricky track in Arcadia. Seeing how front running speed didn’t bode well for horses on Friday gives credence to those in the second flight.