Breeders' Cup

Breeders Cup 2022 Analysis (Friday)

Another year, another World Championships… and a stacked one at that! Let’s check out the Future Stars Friday card from Keeneland for the 2022 Breeders’ Cup.

Race 5 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (GII) Fri. 2:15pm
$350,000 1 5/8 Miles Dirt For Older
Top Selections: 4- Heywoods Beach 5- Sheriff Brown 2- Next
Hard not to like Heywoods Beach in a spot that comes up light without a lot of long-range speed. Looks to be the one to likely grab an early lead and keep on going with tons of stamina to take them all the distance. I’ll key with a probable long-shot in Sheriff Brown who comes out of races at Albuquerque, Lone Star, and Sunland. His back form doesn’t look too bad against very tough company at Del Mar and now got a year to just gain confidence. When he is on his game, he performs very well coming from way back and running front runners down. This distance is more his style. If we happen to get some rain, Next, will be super live on the wet dirt.

Race 6 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (GI) Fri. 3:00pm
$1,000,000 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf For 2-Year-Olds
Top Selections: 3- Private Creed 8- American Apple 12- The Platinum Queen
The first Breeder’s Cup race of the weekend is primed for an upset, with a mixed back of youngsters going at it on the turf. Private Creed gets the nod with the win over this course and distance last out in the Indian Summer, having improved each start thus far, and coming into a strong form cycle. This son of Jimmy Creed keeps Joel Rosario aboard, draws a great post, and finds himself in a race with almost entirely front runners. Expect a solid early pace opening up for a sweeping and driving move late. I have to use American Apple who seems to potentially be the one in this group that may have the most upside later in life; this daughter of American Pharoah is starting to turn it up enroute to her win at Aqueduct last out in the Matron. While this may be a bit up in class from last out, she is life to beat the boys, and many may need to move up a few lengths to beat her if she puts on her performance last out again. I can’t leave The Platinum Queen off any of my tickets – she has done everything there is for Richard Fahey; I just worry about the post and the price.

Race 7 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (GI) Fri. 3:40pm
$2,000,000 1 1/16 Miles Dirt For 2-Year-Olds, Fillies
Top Selections: 7- Chop Chop 10- Chocolate Gelato 3- And Tell Me Nolies
The best horse this weekend might be Chop Chop who had no luck last out over course and distance after a slow start and wide trip to finish just a nose behind Wonder Wheel. These two match up again, but if Chop Chop can stay out of trouble, this is her race for the taking. No one has had as easy a trip into this race than Chocolate Gelato, who has easily cruised to back-to-back wins with almost no effort. The daughter of Practical Joke exudes tactical speed much like an older mare – very live if her class translates from NY to this group. Meanwhile And Tell Me Nolies, a daughter of Arrogate, is lightly raced and finished a close second to Chocolate Gelato last out in the Frizette. She is still getting better and I giver her a good growth moving into this race. This could be her best day – her 14.5 length win first out at Saratoga still sticks in my mind and puts her in a very high spot.

Race 8 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (GI) Fri. 4:20pm
$1,000,000 1 Mile Turf For 2-Year-Olds, Fillies
Top Selections: 4- Free Look 10- Meditate 14- Basil Martini
I don’t love betting on last out winners in the Breeders’ Cup, but Free Look has a clear excuse. Been a sharp horse and improving well in last two for Chad Brown, she just finds ways to be unlucky. Taking a stab that her pinball-like mentality is fixed here and she uses her powerful turn of foot to blow away the competition. Meditate for Aidan O’Brien is hard to ignore based on her form, while his son Joseph O’Brien brings in a very devastating front runner in Basil Martini.

Race 9 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) Fri. 5:00pm
$2,000,000 1 1/16 Miles Dirt For 2-Year-Olds, C&G
Top Selections: 3- Cave Rock 6- Blazing Sevens 5- Verifying
Baffert isn’t going to bring his best 2-year-old out here unless he has a chance to embarrass the competition. Cave Rock could do just that; this son of Arrogate might end up as the shortest price the entire weekend, coming out of devastating wins in the Del Mar Futurity and American Pharoah. I’ve yet to see another two-year-old colt on dirt do what he is doing right now. Underneath, Blazing Sevens and Verifying exit the Champagne in good order, with both being must uses. Blazing Sevens took last out by going wide throughout and taking by far the longest path around to beat Verifying. I think that may have been the best prep race of the season and see Blazing Sevens as tough with a good trip while Verifying is a horse that is going to be even better in this spot than last out.

Race 10 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (GI) Fri. 5:40pm
$1,000,000 1 Mile Turf For 2-Year-Olds, C&G
Top Selections: 8- I’m Very Busy 9- Nagirroc 2- Packs A Whalop
The Chad Brown I’m Very Busy gets the nod for me over the Euros in a race that looks to go through a few. I’ll excuse last out based on the wide and troubled trip, but improving and getting better. Flavien should have this one in top form. Nagirroc looks intriguing at a price, with back to back good wins and looks to take to the Keeneland turf well. And Packs A Wahlop has to be a must play, although the CA to KY connection isn’t very strong in this type of play.

Categories: Breeders' Cup

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