The third leg of the Triple Crown has finally arrived – the Belmont Stakes (…at Saratoga…) featuring the winners of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness! Sovereignty and Journalism are the top stories of the weekend, with all eyes on them to see who might be able to come out on top and take a commanding spot in the 3YO Division… but they will face a challenge array of foes that will be looking to join them as Triple Crown Race winners. Outside of the Belmont Stakes, Saratoga plays home to three days of championship level stakes action – and we are here to break down my selections for all of the stakes races this weekend.
| Race | Conditions | 1st Choice | 2nd Choice | 3rd Choice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tremont Thu R1 | 5.5 Furlongs Dirt 2YOs | 5- Romeo | 3- Mythical | 4- Mercilesanihilator |
| Astoria Thu R3 | 5.5 Furlongs Dirt 2YO, Fillies | 3- Sassy C W | 6- Vernon Valley | 4- Ticket to Ride |
| Intercontinental (G2) Thu R7 | 5.5 Furlongs Turf 4UP, Fillies/Mares | 7- Kairyu | 1- Pandora’s Gift | 2- Future Is Now |
| Poker (G3) Thu R9 | One Mile Turf 4UP | 5- Mischievous Angel | 1- Cameo Performance | 4- Major Dude |
| Bed o’ Roses (G2) Fri R6 | 7 Furlongs Dirt 4UP, Fillies/Mares | 3- Ways and Means | 2- Scylla | 1- Irish Maxima |
| Ogden Phipps (G1) Fri R9 | 1 1/8 Miles Dirt 4UP, Fillies/Mares | 7- Randomized | 4- Raging Sea | 3- Leslie’s Rose |
| Belmont Gold Cup (G2) Fri R10 | Two Miles, Turf 4UP | 1- Flatten the Curve | 3- Limited Liability | 8- Grand Sonata |
| Acorn (G1) Fri R11 | 1 1/8 Miles Dirt 3YO, Fillies | 2- Good Cheer | 4- Shred the Gnar | 5- Bless the Broken |
| New York (G1) Fri R12 | 1 3/16 Miles Turf 4UP, Filles/Mares | 8- She Feels Pretty | 6- Bellezza | 3- Gimme a Nother |
| Just a Game (G1) Fri R13 | One Mile Turf 4UP, Fillies/Mares | 2- Segesta | 10- Heredia | 8- Excellent Truth |
| Wonder Again (G2) Sat R6 | 1 1/16 Miles Turf 3YO, Fillies | 8- Laurelin | 5- Opulent Restraint | 6- Nitrogen |
| True North (G3) Sat R7 | 6.5 Furlongs Dirt 4UP | 4- Nakatomi | 5- Book’em Danno | 2- Crazy Mason |
| Metropolitan (G1) Sat R8 | One Mile Dirt 3UP | 2- White Abbario | 4- Just a Touch | 1- Fierceness |
| Jaipur (G1) Sat R9 | 5.5 Furlongs Turf 3UP | 8- Alogon | 4- My Boy Prince | 10- Coppola |
| Pennine Ridge (G3) Sat R10 | 1 1/16 Miles Turf 3YO | 4- Flying Mohawk | 3- States’ Rights | 8- Golden Channel |
| Woody Stephens (G1) Sat R11 | 7 Furlongs Dirt 3YO | 8- Gunmetal | 1- Big Truzz | 10- Chancer McPatrick |
| Manhattan (G1) Sat R12 | 1 3/16 Miles Turf 4UP | 9- Far Bridge | 5- Deterministic | 4- Carson’s Run |
| Belmont Stakes (G1) Sat R13 | 1 1/4 Miles Dirt 3YO | 6- Baeza | 8- Heart of Honor | 1- Hill Prince |
Belmont Stakes Analysis
While I think both Journalism and Sovereignty are extremely talented… the short price on Journalism scares me away from betting and I’m not sure that the way the dirt track will play today will be best suited for Sovereignty to make the late run that he is patented for. Nonetheless, will be cheering them both on as I hope to see a legendary stretch duel between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners.
As for betting, while Baeza’s price is a bit shorter than I want, he has been a horse that I’ve pegged for the Triple Crown since January. His late run in the Kentucky Derby to grab third while still being quite green was the perfect tune-up for this race. He should be able to get an early lead with relative ease here, and that may be all she wrote as he is very tough to pass once dug in.
Meanwhile, this track sets up well for Heart of Honor, who should relish this muddy-to-sloppy footing. His price makes him a great upset play and I expect Saffie Osborne to put him in the right spot throughout; it is races like these that are why Jamie Osborne got this horse. As for Hill Prince, the Peter Pan winner is one that continues to plod along in his races – showing good tactical speed and is the type of grinder that you look for in a horse to win at Saratoga. I think he is worth a play here – especially if betting against the favorites.
My primary betting strategy will be around playing these three horses in exotics alongside Journalism and Sovereignty. Won’t pay much if either of those two win, but should be a healthy payout if one of my three gets the win and/or place spots, with so much money going towards Journalism at the moment.
Tagline w/ Michael Tartaglia 