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Michael Tartaglia

2025 Belmont Stakes Analysis and Weekend Stakes Preview

The third leg of the Triple Crown has finally arrived – the Belmont Stakes (…at Saratoga…) featuring the winners of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness! Sovereignty and Journalism are the top stories of the weekend, with all eyes on them to see who might be able to come out on top and take a commanding spot in the 3YO Division… but they will face a challenge array of foes that will be looking to join them as Triple Crown Race winners. Outside of the Belmont Stakes, Saratoga plays home to three days of championship level stakes action – and we are here to break down my selections for all of the stakes races this weekend.

RaceConditions1st Choice2nd Choice3rd Choice
Tremont
Thu R1
5.5 Furlongs Dirt
2YOs
5- Romeo3- Mythical4- Mercilesanihilator
Astoria
Thu R3
5.5 Furlongs Dirt
2YO, Fillies
3- Sassy C W6- Vernon Valley4- Ticket to Ride
Intercontinental (G2)
Thu R7
5.5 Furlongs Turf
4UP, Fillies/Mares
7- Kairyu1- Pandora’s Gift2- Future Is Now
Poker (G3)
Thu R9
One Mile Turf
4UP
5- Mischievous Angel1- Cameo Performance4- Major Dude
Bed o’ Roses (G2)
Fri R6
7 Furlongs Dirt
4UP, Fillies/Mares
3- Ways and Means2- Scylla1- Irish Maxima
Ogden Phipps (G1)
Fri R9
1 1/8 Miles Dirt
4UP, Fillies/Mares
7- Randomized4- Raging Sea3- Leslie’s Rose
Belmont Gold Cup (G2)
Fri R10
Two Miles, Turf
4UP
1- Flatten the Curve3- Limited Liability8- Grand Sonata
Acorn (G1)
Fri R11
1 1/8 Miles Dirt
3YO, Fillies
2- Good Cheer4- Shred the Gnar5- Bless the Broken
New York (G1)
Fri R12
1 3/16 Miles Turf
4UP, Filles/Mares
8- She Feels Pretty6- Bellezza3- Gimme a Nother
Just a Game (G1)
Fri R13
One Mile Turf
4UP, Fillies/Mares
2- Segesta10- Heredia8- Excellent Truth
Wonder Again (G2)
Sat R6
1 1/16 Miles Turf
3YO, Fillies
8- Laurelin5- Opulent Restraint6- Nitrogen
True North (G3)
Sat R7
6.5 Furlongs Dirt
4UP
4- Nakatomi5- Book’em Danno2- Crazy Mason
Metropolitan (G1)
Sat R8
One Mile Dirt
3UP
2- White Abbario4- Just a Touch1- Fierceness
Jaipur (G1)
Sat R9
5.5 Furlongs Turf
3UP
8- Alogon4- My Boy Prince10- Coppola
Pennine Ridge (G3)
Sat R10
1 1/16 Miles Turf
3YO
4- Flying Mohawk3- States’ Rights8- Golden Channel
Woody Stephens (G1)
Sat R11
7 Furlongs Dirt
3YO
8- Gunmetal1- Big Truzz10- Chancer McPatrick
Manhattan (G1)
Sat R12
1 3/16 Miles Turf
4UP
9- Far Bridge5- Deterministic4- Carson’s Run
Belmont Stakes (G1)
Sat R13
1 1/4 Miles Dirt
3YO
6- Baeza8- Heart of Honor1- Hill Prince

Belmont Stakes Analysis

While I think both Journalism and Sovereignty are extremely talented… the short price on Journalism scares me away from betting and I’m not sure that the way the dirt track will play today will be best suited for Sovereignty to make the late run that he is patented for. Nonetheless, will be cheering them both on as I hope to see a legendary stretch duel between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners.

As for betting, while Baeza’s price is a bit shorter than I want, he has been a horse that I’ve pegged for the Triple Crown since January. His late run in the Kentucky Derby to grab third while still being quite green was the perfect tune-up for this race. He should be able to get an early lead with relative ease here, and that may be all she wrote as he is very tough to pass once dug in.

Meanwhile, this track sets up well for Heart of Honor, who should relish this muddy-to-sloppy footing. His price makes him a great upset play and I expect Saffie Osborne to put him in the right spot throughout; it is races like these that are why Jamie Osborne got this horse. As for Hill Prince, the Peter Pan winner is one that continues to plod along in his races – showing good tactical speed and is the type of grinder that you look for in a horse to win at Saratoga. I think he is worth a play here – especially if betting against the favorites.

My primary betting strategy will be around playing these three horses in exotics alongside Journalism and Sovereignty. Won’t pay much if either of those two win, but should be a healthy payout if one of my three gets the win and/or place spots, with so much money going towards Journalism at the moment.

2025 Preakness Stakes Analysis and Weekend Stakes Preview

All attention falls on Baltimore this weekend as the horse racing scene shifts to Pimlico for the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes. While no Triple Crown is on the line as Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty skips his attempt at immortality, a field of nine line up – headlined by the Kentucky Derby top two betting choices, Journalism and Sandman. While few of the top three year olds have chosen to line up here, the 7 foes that contend with these two giants of the spring all come in with talent… making this a very competitive race from top to bottom.

Of course, the weekend isn’t just about the Preakness Stakes, it also showcases some of the best Grade Two and Grade Three horses, all looking for a chance to step up on their road to championships – with a tremendous two days of undercard action, headlined by the Pimlico Special and Black-Eyed Susan on Friday and the Dinner Party and Jim McKay Turf Sprint on Saturday. With fifteen stakes races across the two days, there is plenty of betting action. While heavy favorites look to be the theme at Pimlico… that opens the door for some very big price horses underneath to add some value to the days card.

Download and check out my full weekend slate of picks for all the stakes races at the PDF below – happy Preakness Weekend!

2025 Kentucky Derby Analysis and Weekend Stakes Preview

As the sun rises on the Twin Spires in Louisville, Kentucky in May, another trip to Churchill Downs for the best horses in the country commences. The 151st Running of the Kentucky Derby is not just about the best three-year olds in the country dueling it out for a place of immortality, it is about all of the best horses coming together for a weekend of elite race, filled with the grandeur of the day – fashion, pageantry, mint juleps, and everything else that makes Churchill Downs the special place that it is.

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NFL Draft 2025 – Mock Draft Final (April 24th, 2025)

Today is the day! The NFL Draft is among us – the future of the NFL is lining up and waiting with bated breath to see where they will end up starting their careers. While some things are almost certain going into tonight, this is the most wide-open the first round has been in a long time. This is a night to look forward to – and a night that is sure to be full of surprises.

With that said, here we go with my final mock draft ahead of the 2025 NFL Draft First Round tonight.

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NFL Draft 2025 – Mock Draft v2 (April 12th, 2025)

The NFL Combine provided us with several answers, confirmed some beliefs going in, and helped to start painting the picture for the 2025 NFL Draft which is just two short months away. As we start to head on that way, I’ll be providing even more context into each team’s options, who I think will be taken, and try to predict where the stars of college football will be playing next season as they make the shift to the pros.

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NFL Draft 2025 – Pre-Combine Mock Draft (Feb 23rd, 2025)

With the Super Bowl behind us and the NFL Combine in just a few days, its officially time to start Mock Draft Season. While a lot is still to be determined (free agency, combine results, the pre-Draft trades), this is a perfect time to start taking a look at what all 32 NFL teams could be doing during the final weekend in April. With that, we will kick if off with my first official mock draft of the season!

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Breeders’ Cup 2023 – Analysis (Saturday)

Saturday of the World Championships is an absolute gauntlet of races on tap. The world’s best hit Santa Anita Park with all that they have, and this is sure to be a day to remember. While the order of races may not be what we are used to, the racing day should be nothing but spectacular. Here is how I see the races on the day.


Race 3 – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Grade I) | 1 Mile | Dirt | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $1,000,000
(1) Stage Raider | (3) Cody’s Wish | (4) Zozos
I do think this race runs through one main horse, Cody’s Wish, who can easily take this if he likes the two-turn trip; but his best is always around one turn, and he hasn’t been coming into this race off his best. I’ll use Stage Raider to beat him at a price; he was just a length from Zozos last out in the Ack Ack around one-turn, and really needs two turns to get his game going; his last win at Ellis Park was impressive, pulling away from the weaker stakes field – will need his best to win, but is poised for an upset. Zozos is the other talent here; Brad Cox has him ready. (Algiers was to be the play here, before he had to withdraw)

Race 4 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade I) | 1 1/4 Miles | Turf | Three-Year-Olds and Upward, F&M | $2,000,000
(2) Warm Heart | (6) Inspiral | (7) Lindy | (11) Lumiere Rock
After rewatching each of the preps for this field, no one has a turn of foot quite like Warm Heart. Last out in the Qatar Prix Vermeille, Warm Heart easily coasted and fended off the challenge of Melo Melo. She should relish the firmer ground and should appreciate the cut back in distance. Inspiral on class alone would likely win this race – and give Dettori a Breeders’ Cup Flying Dismount – and was impressive in the Sun Chariot; if she handles the move up in distance and the firmer ground, she will be dangerous. Lindy and Lumiere Rock are the longshot plays for me – Lindy showed impressive turn of foot last out and will respond well to the step up in pace, while Lumiere Rock puts her best on firmer ground and is not too far from the top of this field – if she can get to the front early she will easily hold on for a piece of it in the end.

Race 5 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade I) | 7 Furlongs | Dirt | Three-Year-Olds and Upward, F&M | $1,000,000
(1) Goodnight Olive
Not going to try and rewrite the book here – Goodnight Olive is much the best here in a race that came up very soft.

Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade I) | 1 Mile | Turf | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $2,000,000
(6) Mawj | (10) Songline | (11) Kelina | (14) Master Of The Seas
This is an absolute thriller on paper! So much talent in what may be the best Breeders’ Cup Mile in a long time. The 1000 Guineas winner, Mawj, gets my top vote here, as she had the ideal prep heading into this spot and has really taken well to the American turf. Her last out was an impressive gate to wire win at Keeneland and should move up off that. But her challengers are fierce. The Japanese back-to-back Yasuda Kinen winning mare, Songline, is the real deal – if she transfers her form and turn of foot overseas, she will be very difficult to stop; whether she makes the trip well is really the only question mark for a horse that continues to swallow up ground very quickly. Meanwhile the Wertheimer et Frere entry of Kelina may be the forgotten one, and could be open at a price, after an impressive win over Kinross in the Prix de la Foret last out; she is a fighter who is coming into her own now. Of course, it would be a mistake to leave out the Appleby-Buick runner, Master Of The Seas, who is an excellent horse in his own right; the pair have won this race the last two years and have another tough challenger with this winner of the Woodbine Mile.

Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Grade I) | 1 1/8 Miles | Dirt | Three-Year-Olds and Upward, F&M | $2,000,000
(7) Wet Paint | (4) Idiomatic | (2) A Mo Reay
The Distaff has come up with a ton of front speed and lots of horses that want the front. The expected fast pace sets up well for those with tactical speed and closers, which leads me to Wet Paint and Idiomatic. Both are must use in my opinion, with both looking to set just a bit off the quick early pace and sweeping by. Wet Paint is coming into her own well and should step up again here, while Idiomatic is one that has excelled from anywhere in the track and should be placed right behind the leaders or taking over if no one else does by Florent Geroux. A Mo Reay gets the price here – no way she should be anywhere near 20/1 – trouble has caused her to lose some lengths in her last three, but last out was showing exactly what you’d want and should continue to improve – a clean trip for her likely gets her into the money, if not better.

Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade I) | 1 1/2 Miles | Turf | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $4,000,000
(9) Mostahdaf | (5) Auguste Rodin
Can’t say there is much money to be won here, but some of the best turf stars in the world hit the Arcadia turf for a thrilling showdown. Auguste Rodin is by far the class of the field and will get most of the money – a thrilling sight to see the Irish Champion and dual Derby winner here for the Breeders’ Cup. But Mostahdaf will be my top choice here – should get him at twice the odds of Auguste Rodin and with just as much talent – the Juddmonte and Princes of Wales’s winner relishes this firmer ground and has shown to travel so well. He has grown so much since the Dubai Sheema Classic and should be in top form for Jim Crowley and John Gosden.

Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade I) | 1 1/4 Miles | Dirt | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $6,000,000
(13) Proxy | (8) Ushba Tesoro | (11) Bright Future
I’ve been a huge fan of Proxy for over a year now… just waiting for his time to shine. Here might be it. The son of Tapit is one with a ton of tactical speed but has found his way into some tough spots all year round. He finally has started to grow these last two and looks to be gearing up for another big run entering this spot. His best stuff comes at 10 furlongs, and his great positioning should keep him in a spot to pounce down the stretch against what looks to be a pretty quick pace. Ushba Tesoro is a must use – he is one of the best horses in the world and the quick pace here should bode well for him to get a big last run down the stretch and close on for victory. I’ll take a price in Bright Future who has found his preferred race as of late and should press the pace early and have the stamina to keep on going.

Race 10 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade I) | 5 Furlongs | Turf | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $1,000,000
(12) Arzak | (11) Jasper Krone | (3) Caravel
What a great betting race in the Turf Sprint! Arzak gets my pick – love his Woodford win last out and this is the type of spot he loves to be in – this race suits his style well and puts him right where he needs to be to win. His form is developing well coming into the Breeders Cup. Jasper Krone ships in from Japan and the cutback in distance to 5 furlongs should bode him well – nice run in the Kitakyushu Kinen earlier this year and has a ton of talent to show up today. Meanwhile Caravel is always a must use in these spots and, while the last two have been terrible trips, she should rebound to find her way near the front at the end.

Race 11 – Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade I) | 6 Furlongs | Dirt | Three-Year-Olds and Upward | $2,000,000
(2) Dr. Schivel | (6) The Chosen Vron
I’m taking two of the top horses from the last two major sprint races in California, the Santa Anita Sprint Championship winner Dr. Schivel and the Bing Crosby winner The Chosen Vron. Both have tactical speed, are in great form, and relish this tricky track in Arcadia. Seeing how front running speed didn’t bode well for horses on Friday gives credence to those in the second flight.

Breeders’ Cup 2023 – Analysis (Friday)

The World Championships of Horse Racing are among us once again – the Breeders’ Cup! With a stacked Future Stars Friday card on the docket, Friday is an exceptional day of racing for any fan. No race is a true give-me with Juvenile races having diverse and challenging fields that are sure to cause the best horses to rise to the occasion.


Race 5 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade I) | 5 Furlongs | Turf | Two-Year-Olds | $1,000,000
(2) No Nay Mets | (9) Starlust | (11) Slider
Speed will be the name of the game for these two-year-olds in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. No Nay Mets has by far the best speed in this field, has drawn near the inside, and is fresh coming into this spot. Irad should be able to easily navigate this field from the front and pull away near the end to take the opening Championship race. I’d add Starlust and Slider underneath at prices; Starlust will definitely move up on this firmer turf while Slider is very comfortable on this course and should be running near the front in the end.

Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade I) | 1 1/16 Miles | Dirt | Two-Year-Old Fillies | $2,000,000
(7) Tamara | (1) Candied | (2) Jody’s Pride
Is Tamara much the best in this field? Absolutely. If she runs her race, she crushes this field, but if she doesn’t repeat her effort in the Del Mar Debutante, the Alcibiades winner Candied isn’t going to be too far behind her. Candied has been impressive in both her starts and is showing great turn of foot for being so young. Both ridden by elite jockeys that will be putting their mounts in the best position. But if not them, watch out for a young two-year-old by American Pharoah out of a Scat Daddy mare; Jody’s Pride may have been sprinting against fields that really wanted to be on turf, but she has taken both races in great stride and was ultra impressive drawing away in the Matron last out at Aqueduct. While this will be a step up for her, and a much longer distance, her pedigree suggests she gets the distance and at 15/1, it is hard to avoid a horse that should definitely be at a shorter price.

Race 7 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade I) | 1 Mile | Turf | Two-Year-Old Fillies | $1,000,000
(8) Life’s An Audible | (5) Content | (7) Gala Brand | (10) Austere
This is by far the toughest race of the day to handicap. The Euros look good here, but the obvious stand-outs have too many questions about distance to put a lot of eggs in their basket. Instead, I go with a longshot coming in from NY, Life’s An Audible, who was charging hard last time out against an incredible slow pace. She won’t get that here and should get the quick pace she was hoping to have – that will work well for her turn of foot and help her do just one better this time. Underneath, I’ll take the mount of Ryan Moore, Content, who had a flying win last out in the Staffordstown Stud and should easily make the distance – she has been getting better as the races get longer and should be a contender. I’ll also use a second runner out of the Ms Grillo, Gala Brand, who was impressive in the With Anticipation and looks to get a trip that won’t have her in the middle of the track. I also can’t leave this race without looking at Austere, who could end up being the best of this bunch a year from now; I think she is just a bit green still, but watching her win at Kentucky Downs is all you need to know she is a future star.

Race 8 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Grade I) | 1 1/16 Mile | Dirt | Two-Year-Old Colts & Geldings | $2,000,000
(8) General Partner | (4) Timberlake | (10) Muth
The Champagne Stakes one-two look to be coming into form well. Timberlake put his best performance on the track in the Champagne last out, but General Partner may be the better one here; looked like the slop just hampered his ability to finish, but that won’t be the problem here. Both of these are much the best in the field. Muth has a lot of talent and sure to at least test anyone down the stretch.

Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade I) | 1 Mile | Turf | Two Year Old Colts & Geldings | $1,000,000
(8) Unquestionable | (14) Carson’s Run | (2) River Tiber
Aidan O’Brien does look to be the one to come away with another Juvenile Turf this year, with a very tough to stop Unquestionable. He should easily hit the money and looks to tower over this field. While he does have a few blemishes on his record, he has been racing against the top and continues to impress. Meanwhile, Carson’s Run comes out of a tough Summer Stakes at Woodbine that he won in funky fashion – a more straightforward trip will bode well for him (also watch if Gala Brand wins the Juvenile Fillies Turf earlier in the day; he finished behind her in the With Anticipation). I’ll throw the other talented Aidan O’Brien into the card, with River Tiber shipping well and sure to be a threat.

2023 Belmont Stakes Day Selections

New York, New York – the home of the Belmont Stakes and the Third Jewel of the Triple Crown! After a few days of the apocalypse shuddered New York, we are back with racing this Saturday for a stacked card of some of the greatest and most historic races, along side championship horses. Let’s take a look at the races and my selections for Belmont Stakes Day:


Race 3 | True North | G2 | 6.5 Furlongs Dirt | $250,000 | 4UP
(1) Today’s Flavor | (5) Strobe | (6) Elite Power

While the Riyadh Dirt Sprint winner may be tough to beat first out of his Saudi win, the layoff and trip may get the best of him. I’ll go with the strong early speed of Today’s Flavor with Manny Franco aboard; he has shown up time and time again, loves getting to the lead first, and has the style to go gate-to-wire. Strobe and Elite Power will be underneath.


Race 5 | Poker | G3 | 1 Mile Turf | $200,000 | 4UP
(1) Chez Pierre | (2) Emaraaty | (7) Filo Di Arianna

The Maker’s Mark Mile winner from France, the aptly named Chez Pierre, is much the best in this group. Really hard to see how this gelding loses with Flavien Prat aboard in this one. Emaraaty is a tough and hard trier making the first off a long layoff, which is usually pretty good for him, while Filo Di Arianna has the resume to excel in this spot second off the layoff.


Race 6 | Brooklyn | G2 | 1 1/2 Miles Dirt | $250,000 | 4UP
(5) Next | (2) Red Run | (1) Portos

Next is an outstanding marathoner that has found his niche. Should really excel in this spot at Belmont Park against many returning foes from last time. If he grabs the lead early, he will put this field away. Red Run came out of the same race and just missed the win – looked to be much better than winner but had a tough trip, while Portos should get back into form with Tom Morley.


Race 7 | Ogden Phipps | G1 | 1 1/16 Miles Dirt | $500,000 | 4UP FM
(4) Secret Oath | (1) Pass The Champagne | (2) Search Results

What a showdown between Secret Oath and Search Results! The daughter of Arrogate for D. Wayne Lukas looks to take this against a very tough field, but she will look to rebound going her preferred one turn. She is a tough horse and should be able to close out and catch Search Results or Played Hard late. Pass The Champagne is a nice price horse that you need to watch out for – she was impressive last out in the Ruffian.


Race 8 | Woody Stephens | G1 | 7 Furlongs Dirt | $400,000 | 3YO
(4) General Jim | (13) Drew’s Gold | (3) Arabian Lion

The Pat Day Mile winner, General Jim, looks to complete the double, and has the right running style to do it. Closers excel in the Woody Stephens usually but will have to content with a tough Baffert runner in Arabian Lion. Drew’s Gold is improving and has a very live chance to steal.


Race 9 | Jaipur | G1 | 6 Furlongs Turf | $400,000 | 3UP
(12) Caravel | (2) Go Bears Go | (1) Yes And Yes

Caravel is the best turf sprinter in the country. She has been dominant for so long and continues to get better. She doesn’t seem to be looking back at all. This is the type of spot that she should relish – a track that loves her running style. The lock of the day.


Race 10 | Metropolitan Handicap | G1 | 1 Mile Dirt | $1,000,000 | 3UP
(1) Cody’s Wish | (3) Dr. Schivel | (6) Zandon

Cody’s Wish is the one to beat here – has been dominant the last year, and is tough around one turn. If there is even an ounce of speed, he will be able to close well and should blow past down the stretch. Dr. Schivel will be the one to catch, though. He may be better than Cody’s Wish, though hard to say right now – lots of talent and he is finally back to the races and looks to be right. Could be a dominant force in the one-turn division. Meanwhile Zandon is dangerous to sneak a win if thinks fall apart.


Race 11 | Manhattan | G1 | 1 1/4 Miles Turf | $750,000 | 4UP
(4) Ottoman Fleet | (5) Soldier Rising | (10) Highest Honors

Charlie Appleby doesn’t lose when he sends horses to the states, and the Fort Marcy winner Ottoman Fleet joins his winning contingent. He easily won clear last out and looks to continue that in this Belmont invasion – has a lot of class and toughness to win and should be placed well for the most part. Soldier Rising was solid in the Man O’ War, just coming up short, but shouldn’t be doubted in this spot for Christophe Clement, while Highest Honors should recover footing moving back to Belmont Park.


Race 12 | Belmont Stakes | G1 | 1 1/2 Miles Dirt | $1,500,000 | 3YO
(8) Angel Of Empire | (1) Tapit Shoes | (3) Arcangelo

Angel Of Empire has the pedigree, running style, and skill to crush this field. The Belmont is the perfect race for him, and he seems to be the type that can run all day long. Getting blinkers here should help him stay forwardly placed and take this race all the way. Tapit Shoes is the other for Brad Cox, and ran very well in the Bath House Row last out; really improving and should relish this distance. Meanwhile don’t sleep on the Peter Pan winner Arcangelo, who was dangerous las tout and looks to fit well with this group – only can go up from here!