As the sun rises on the Twin Spires in Louisville, Kentucky in May, another trip to Churchill Downs for the best horses in the country commences. The 151st Running of the Kentucky Derby is not just about the best three-year olds in the country dueling it out for a place of immortality, it is about all of the best horses coming together for a weekend of elite race, filled with the grandeur of the day – fashion, pageantry, mint juleps, and everything else that makes Churchill Downs the special place that it is.

On the First Saturday in May, the 20 best three-year olds in the country will square off in a race as old as time – an American tradition that is what Daytona, Indy, and Monaco are to auto racing, what The Masters is to Golf, what Wimbledon is to tennis – a race that cements the calendar for thoroughbred racing in the United States, and really kicks off the Road to the Breeders’ Cup. The Kentucky Derby embodies what this sport means to so many – it is a weekend-long (or at this point a week-long) event that captures all parts of the sport – whether it is the gambling, the traditions, the party atmosphere, the millionaire’s row or the infield seats, the lifelong trainers who are looking for a shot at the best race of the year, the small time breeders vs the big conglomerates, the history, and most importantly the championship racing. Throughout the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks Day cards, fans will have a chance to see some of the best horses in the country… including one of the best horses in the world in Thorpedo Anna, have a chance to view elite racing – and get a glimpse of what the Del Mar seaside oval will experience in November. There is nothing better than sitting back and relishing in what occurs under the fabled Twin Spires of Churchill Downs each May.

As for the 2025 Kentucky Derby – it is one of the most wide open in recent memory, while also one with a very well defined pace. The Derby looks to be a call back to the pre-points era, where fast paces were always to be expected and closers were the types you’d want to hunt for. With at least six horses all trying to vie for the pace – it will be fast and furious early, potentially setting this up for a classic stretch run by a large group of closers. In the field, we find the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion from a year ago – Citizen Bull – who looks to try and regain his form as he has faltered in the run up to this race, the presumptive best three-year old in the nation with Journalism, winner of the Santa Anita Derby, a pair of talented runners from Japan in Luxor Cafe and Admire Daytona, three horses sired by a Triple Crown winner (two from American Pharoah and one from Justify), and a host of already proven Grade One winners.

When the horses cross through the grandstand on Saturday to the singing of My Old Kentucky Home, Journalism, the Santa Anita Derby winner, and Sovereignty, the Fountain of Youth winner, will be the likely first and second choices – both well deserving. But Arkansas Derby winner Sandman will be close on there tail – with the Oaklawn preps being some of the most live for Derby winners in recent years (Mystik Dan, Country House, American Pharoah), there is little doubt that he will be a major factor. Meanwhile, winners of other major prep races, Final Gambit (Jeff Ruby – which has had two winners since 2011), American Promise (the new Virginia Derby), Burnham Square (Blue Grass), Tiztastic (Louisiana Derby), and Owen Almighty (Tampa Bay Derby) will look to show that their wins weren’t just flukes. Or could it be the lightly raced but immensely talented Baeza that ends up stealing the show? Drawing in after the defection of Rodriguez, this horse is a half-brother to two Triple Crown race winners in Mage and Dornoch – why not try and make it a third. So many story lines in this year’s Kentucky Derby – but only one three-year old can come away with the garland of roses and march into Baltimore in two weeks looking at a chance at immortality five weeks from now.

Kentucky Derby 2025 Selections

Top Selections: (17) Sandman, (21) Baeza
Value Play: (16) Coal Battle
Need to Include: (7) Luxor Cafe, (18) Sovereignty

This race plays very much into Sandman’s wheelhouse. His Arkansas Derby win was visually impressive and comes into the Kentucky Derby off a career-best performance. With an expected fast pace, his deep closing kick is perfect for how this race sets up. Meanwhile Baeza, drawing in off the also-eligible list, is a horse that cannot be passed up – he is getting better and better with each race and, while lightly raced, is one of the most talented and conditioned horses in the field – he will play a huge role in the final standings of the race if he can live up to his potential.

As for a value play – Coal Battle is one to not leave off tickets. He has contended with Sandman throughout the Spring down at Oaklawn and trainer Lonnie Briley was extremely pleased with him after his Rebel win – with the Arkansas Derby never a race he was planning to put him in, but instead just used as a tune-up for the Kentucky Derby. He will be more forwardly placed than Sandman, but should be far enough back of the leaders to not tire and be set up for a good late move.

As for horses to must include on tickets, Luxor Cafe out of Japan and Sovereignty are key to any bets. Both will be making similar closing moves, though with Luxor Cafe expected to be more forwardly placed. Luxor Cafe is immensely talented with an impressive closing kick – he makes this move to the US fully expecting to win; he is a son of American Pharoah and full-brother to talented Japanese dirt horse Cafe Pharoah – he should not be left off any tickets. Meanwhile, Sovereignty is likely the better of the two favorites. While second in the Florida Derby, he just ran out of track in an oddly run race to be able to take home the win, but has an impressive turn of foot and a dominant win over the Churchill Downs track already. He should be closing alongside Sandman late and will be dangerous and tough to beat.

Full Race Analysis & Weekend Picks

You can view my full breakdown of every horse in the race, my projection for how the race will go, and my picks for the entire weekend’s stakes card in the PDF below. Enjoy the races!